2017 global 1/8 people will have tablet computers

According to foreign media reports, Forrester, a well-known market research organization, combined research data analysis a few days ago that the tablet computer has completely replaced the untimely netbook in just three years and completely ended the latter's life cycle. While tablet PC sales are steadily increasing, the prediction made by Steve Jobs when he released the first iPad three years ago seems to have become a reality.

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When the first iPad was released in January 2010, Steve Jobs said "I hope this product will fill the gap between smart phones and PCs." This area has long been dominated by netbooks. However, Steve Jobs has always believed that the so-called "netbook" is entirely a tasteless device, and said: "They are just cheap laptops, I do not think it belongs to the third category of equipment."

Forrester researchers, a well-known market research organization, believe that as Netbook reached the end of its own life, the prediction made by Jobs that year was completely correct, and tablet computers began to replace the Internet as the so-called "third category device." Forrester said that today's tablet PCs have almost achieved the same function as microwave ovens in ordinary homes, that is, a practical device that people want to be able to use both at home and at home.

According to a recent report released by Forrester, tablet computers will become the basic equipment in developed markets in 2017. By then, the American and European households will have tablet ownership rates of 60% and 42%, respectively. And about 905 million people (about one-eighth of the world's population) will have a tablet computer.

At the same time, the prospect of PC equipment that took 20 years to successfully surpass the one billion mark for its installed capacity in 2008 is still not optimistic. According to data from Gartner, another well-known market research firm, PC installed capacity is expected to reach 1.5 billion by the end of this year, but PC sales have been declining due to longer equipment life cycle and consumers’ strong interest in tablet computers and smart phones. .

Tablet PC erodes the PC market

In contrast, the prospects for the development of the tablet computer are much more optimistic, and the field has maintained a rapid growth so far. According to data from independent research firm IDC, despite the decline in sales of the top three Apple, Samsung and Asustek tablet PCs, global tablet shipments in the second quarter of this year still rose by 60% year-on-year to 45.1 million. unit. Due to delays in the release of new products, Apple's tablet PC sales in the near future ushered in a slight decline, but the company still occupies 32.5% of the tablet market share. However, carrying Google Android Tablet PC continues to dominate the market, its market share as high as 62.6%.

Forrester analysts believe that tablet computers have now become an integral part of people's work and life. This has enabled them to develop from a popular mass market device to become a basic household device for consumers in developed countries.

“The Tablet PC has ushered in rapid growth. In the words of the kitchen's popular saying, 'This device has almost become a microwave oven in the personal computer market, second only to the status of refrigerators and ovens in the kitchen'. In other words Tablet PCs have now broken through the so-called definition of occupying the mass market, began to join the ranks of PCs and smart phones, and formed a tripartite situation.” Forrester wrote in his own analysis.

Forrester believes that the compound growth rate of tablet PC sales will remain at a level of around 25.6% before 2017, with an annual sales volume of 381 million units and eventually surpassing the global PC market size. However, IDC's forecast for this seems to be more daring. The agency said that tablet PC sales in 2017 are expected to reach 410 million units, far exceeding the sales volume of 333 million PC devices.

In fact, from the series of forecasts made by IDC, it is not difficult to see that the agency’s forecast for tablet PC sales is increasing every year, but the forecast for PC sales is shrinking, and this is indeed the case. Take 2012, IDC is more conservative about the sales of tablet PCs that year, and is more optimistic about PC sales data. But in the end, the sales of tablet PCs still surpassed previous expectations. For companies that rely primarily on PC products to maintain profitability, this is not a positive signal.

Since Apple released its first-generation iPad in 2010, the company has sold a total of 140 million iPads and has begun to extend its reach to corporate customers such as Barclays Bank, British Airways and American Airlines. At the same time, Dell, a veteran PC maker in the United States, struggled with the lack of tablets and smartphones. A few days ago, the founder of the company, Michael Dell, is seeking to privatize the company, so that he has more time to start R & D, and launch new products. Another veteran PC maker Hewlett-Packard still failed to achieve too much success in this market after burning a billion dollars on the tablet TouchPad, and its PC business has ushered in a 20% decline in the most recent quarter.

Forrester analysis believes that the biggest advantage of tablet PCs over other devices is its "very high portability." The device can be used at home, on the road, in a company, or in a restaurant (30% of adults said that they used tablet computers. Take to the restaurant) use. The tablet’s biggest competitor, the smart phone, has better portability, but it is somewhat uncomfortable when it comes to carrying out some complicated work. For example, Logitech has developed a Tablet PC application for salespeople in the Chinese market. Salespeople can use this application to view product inventory, pictures, and details in real time based on their current location. Although users can also accomplish these tasks through smartphones, this experience is obviously not as smooth as tablets.

Small is good?

With Amazon’s launch of the Kindle Fire, Google’s launch of the Nexus 7, Apple’s launch of the iPad mini, and media coverage for the continued popularity of small-sized tablets, this emerging device seems to have received everyone’s attention overnight.

But is this true?

According to Forrester's research report, 61% of consumers who own or are interested in tablet computers are still more inclined to choose tablet computers with screen sizes between 8.9 and 10.1 inches (such as Amazon's Kindle Fire HD, iPad, or Samsung Galaxy. 10.1 Tablet PCs) Another 16% of consumers said they prefer to buy 7 to 8 inch tablets. This means that about 23% of consumers still remain indecisive. But it needs to be pointed out that some consumers seem to be very interested in larger tablet computers, which also explains why there are rumors that Apple is developing a 13-inch tablet.

For Microsoft's Windows operating system, the future of this product still seems to be full of uncertainty, about 20% of global information workers have expressed willingness to use a tablet computer equipped with Windows 8 system, but the premise is this The application ecosystem of the platform must first be substantially improved. For Apple, although the company's iPad market share has shrunk, Forrester analysis believes that "Given Apple's huge advantages in application ecosystems and platform support, there is absolutely no need for people to worry too much about iOS systems."

But on the other hand, the future of the PC market is still unnerving. After entering the so-called "post-PC era," PC device sales have been declining. Obviously, when people now choose to work with different tools, smart phones and PC devices all have their own clear division of labor, but it seems that only tablet computers can meet the needs of users for these two types of devices at the same time.