Black profits first super white: experts say need to prevent three high risk

"2011 China's electronic information industry economic operation and color TV industry research conference" was held in Beijing yesterday. Southern reporter learned from the conference site that the black and white power structure had the first reversal in 2011, and the profit growth of black power exceeded that of white electricity. The major enterprises benefited more and more. However, the beautiful closing may affect the company's pre-judgment next year. Experts caution that the optimistic expectations of the company are very dangerous for the entire industry, and are prone to accumulate risks, which may result in high inventory, high-strength price wars and high losses.

Increase in the size of the industry

The meeting was jointly organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Department of Electronic Information, and jointly organized by China Electronics Industry Association (C VIA) and Avid Consulting (AVC). According to the data released by the Ovid Consulting United Video Association, in 2011, the sales volume of China's color TV industry in the retail market is expected to reach 41.83 million units, an increase of 4% year-on-year.

In the first half of this year, the volume and price of the color TV market dropped sharply and shattered the entire industry, but in the second half of the year, thanks to the steady decline in panel prices, the market’s development surpassed expectations due to various manufacturers’ incentives, such as flat-panel sales growth in July. Reached 22%.

It is worth noting that in the absence of much excitement in the industry, corporate profits have increased substantially. Peng Jianfeng, Ovid Consulting Tablet Research Center, said that compared with the increase in net profit in the third quarter, Hisense, Konka, and TCL increased by 75.1%, 199.1%, and 658.5%, respectively, this year, compared with 42.8% and -60.90 respectively. % and -30.5%. The growth rates of Gree, Midea, and Meiling in white electricity this year were 18.8%, 1.7%, and -93.90%, respectively.

Peng Jianfeng said that the main reason for the rapid growth of domestic color TV brand profits in 2011 was that it had overcome the inventory backlog and price loss caused by the supply and demand situation of the upstream panel and rapid price changes in previous years, and at the same time, the management and management capabilities of the entire machine business. The ability to change the market has improved significantly this year.

Contrary to the pattern of profit growth of black power, due to the cancellation of the air-conditioning energy-saving benefits subsidy policy, the marginal diminishing effect of home appliances to the countryside policy has a more obvious impact on white electricity, and the increase in white electricity and gross profit have declined sharply. The pattern of electricity was reversed for the first time, and the increase in profit of black power exceeded white electricity this year.

Year of the Dragon needs to be alert to high inventory risks

According to Ovid Consulting's survey, the top ten brands' color TV sales target in 2012 exceeded 51 million units, and this plan clearly exceeds the market's normal increase and capacity.

The market forecast for 2012 released by the meeting shows that negative factors such as depressed consumer confidence and unpredictable property market are intertwined with positive factors such as the construction of affordable housing and the speed of urbanization. It is still unknown whether the market will grow next year. Peng Jianfeng said that the optimistic expectations of the company are actually very dangerous for the entire industry. Under such heavy target pressure, the irrational behavior of companies is likely to come one after another, and it is easy to accumulate risks, which may result in high inventory and high price competition. And high losses.

Zuo Xiaolei, the chief economist of Galaxy Securities, also analyzed that the biggest suspense of the Chinese economy in 2012 was how to achieve a soft landing of GDP growth without unshakeable macroeconomic controls. For the color TV industry, the biggest risk is how to achieve smooth growth with high performance and high target pressure. Otherwise, the high inventory and high-intensity price war will be inevitable under the high pressure of 51 million targets.

As for the rural markets with foreign and domestic concerns, there are industry insiders who have analyzed that although the home appliances to the countryside has accelerated the speed of flat-panel TVs to the countryside, the cost of capital for rural terminal settlement has increased, and many dealers have high value and high value for flat panels. The turnover rate model is not yet applicable, and many rural stores are inefficient. To prevent the risk of policy withdrawal, an important task facing enterprises in the next year is to improve the system capacity of rural terminals and improve their operating standards.