Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly issued the "Announcement on the gradual prohibition on the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps." The announcement decided to gradually import and sell ordinary lighting incandescent lamps in stages according to the power level from November 1, 2011 to October 1, 2016. According to the NDRC, it is estimated that the output value of the lighting and lighting industry in China will be about 8 billion yuan. Does this mean that the competition has been ruined, and even the industry is showing a “crazy investment” status? Does it mean that the spring of development will be ushered in? The LED industry is a strategic emerging industry of Zhongshan, and the country’s intensive policy is promising for the Zhongshan industry. What is the important impact of development?

"Policy is good"

Demand for LED lighting products may increase by 3 to 5 times in the next 5 years. According to the policy arrangement, China will phase out incandescent lamps in five stages: from November 1, 2011 to September 30, 2012 as a transition period; October 2012 It is forbidden to import and sell ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 100 watts or more from 1st; for the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 60 watts and above from October 1, 2014; from October 1, 2015 to September 30, 2016 Mid-term evaluation period; from October 1, 2016, it is forbidden to import and sell ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 15 watts or more, or adjust according to the mid-term evaluation results.

The National Development and Reform Commission introduced to the media, through the implementation of the road map, will effectively promote the healthy development of China's lighting electrical industry, and achieve good energy-saving and emission reduction effects. It is expected that the output value of the lighting and electrical industry will be increased by about 8 billion yuan and the number of new jobs will be about 15,000. The annual energy saving capacity of 48 billion kWh and annual carbon dioxide emissions of 48 million tons.

In addition, in the next five years, the state will vigorously encourage the production and promotion of LED lights. The National Development and Reform Commission is organizing the drafting of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the semiconductor lighting industry, and the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Finance to study and formulate measures to encourage LED promotion. It is expected that the output value of the LED industry will quadruple in five years.

The reporter noted that financial institutions have also given many development forecasts for China's industrial policy. UBS analyzed in its research report released on November 3 that energy-saving lamps will be replaced in the low-end market with the incandescent lamp elimination policy. If the terminal price is reduced by 40%-50%, the LED general lighting demand will increase by 3-5 times. In the high-end field, LED lighting penetration rate is expected to grow rapidly from less than 3% to over 10%. UBS expects that in the next five years, China's lighting energy subsidy will reach 8 billion to 10 billion yuan, through subsidized procurement tenders. Pull down market prices to stimulate greater demand.

Yang Nie, chairman of Xinjian Hardware Products Co., Ltd. believes that the current transition period is an opportunity for many incandescent lamp manufacturers. A powerful enterprise can transform itself into energy-saving lamps and LED enterprises. Small enterprises can seek and expand. Business cooperation, or accept large enterprise mergers.

"Industry Status"

A large number of enterprises turned to LED, the industry showed a "mad investment" trend in the past two years, the LED industry has risen rapidly. "China Lighting Capital" Guzhen Town Party Secretary Yu Xibiao used "mad investment" to describe the current status of the industry. The reporter found that the LED industry, which has already been fiercely competitive, now has a large number of companies that have previously engaged in energy-saving lamps, which has caused enterprises to face signs of a major reshuffle. In the past two years, for the lighting industry, the fastest rising raw materials are phosphors. Not only for SMEs, but also for the price increase, even large enterprises have to spend a lot of liquidity. Purchase the phosphors needed for production. The profits of energy-saving lamps have dropped sharply, and some enterprises have begun to invest in the LED industry, which has also aggravated the differentiation of enterprises. “At the beginning of the year, there were more than 200 kilograms per kilogram. Now it is more than 3,000. The price has increased by a dozen times. The operating costs of enterprises have risen sharply.” Nan Jianzhong, Director of Quality Department of Lighting Co., Ltd. told reporters. Since the beginning of this year, the price of the three primary color phosphors has soared so that the enterprises are “can't eat”. The pressure on the lighting companies is generally increasing, which is related to the large amount of liquidity required for phosphors.

“In the past, a company used one or two million yuan. Now it is only two to three million yuan of liquidity to buy the stock of phosphors. Therefore, companies are not willing to press the stock, and they have orders at any time.

The rise in the price of phosphors has even led some companies to replace phosphors with halogen powders, shoddy, and to obtain short-term benefits at the expense of the healthy development of the industry and consumer credibility. It is precisely because the profits of energy-saving lamps have shrunk dramatically, companies that have tasted the sweetness in the field of energy-saving lamps have begun to consider transformation.

Yang Nie, chairman of Xinjian Hardware Products Co., Ltd., said that on the one hand, with the large-scale production and sales of LED lighting, the price of LED lamps has gradually decreased. On the other hand, the cost of energy-saving lamps has increased substantially, and prices have to be increased. The prices of the two are gradually approaching. This is more for companies to choose LED lighting with greater profit margins.

Nan Jianzhong said that in the case of a meager profit from raw material prices, most companies are reluctant to invest too much money in technological transformation because "I don't know which day I turned." However, Op is different. Although LED has a certain share, Opu is still known for its energy-saving lamps. "At present, we will strive to achieve a certain scale on the basis of developing domestic famous brands. At the same time, we must take an international route. Strive for walking on multiple legs.” NVC Lighting, GE, etc. have done a lot of overseas business, and diversified in engineering lighting, electrician, etc., Opus also decided to develop in this direction. At present, Opt has set up an office in Dubai covering the Middle East, preparing to significantly increase its export share. At the same time, it will also extend from household products to engineering products and electrical and electronic products. OPEC spends 7%-8% of its sales every year on research and development.

"Price war" is the main means of competition for SMEs. "It's crazy. Now lighting companies are rushing to go in and go in." Liu Sheng, marketing director of a lighting company in Guzhen, also sighed. At present, this fanatical mood also "contagious" his business owner. Originally, the company where Liu Sheng was located mainly engaged in lanterns. In recent years, he has also been focusing on the lantern market in the second and third tier cities of China. Recently, the boss has been eager to see the peers, regardless of their size, after they have done LEDs. "We have already inspected some LED companies in Shenzhen. I feel that this industry is still very lucrative compared to other lighting products, and the government is encouraging, so I want to enter." Although Liu Sheng is not very supportive of his company so blindly Entering the LED, "Our company is not big. There is no core competitiveness in LED production. Entering this field is nothing more than finding other factories to open molds, OEMs, and branding our company. If you want to have a certain market, Only the price is spelled out, which is the current method adopted by many small and medium-sized LED companies."

Heroes in troubled times. In the view of Yang Nie, chairman of Xinjian Hardware Products Co., Ltd., although many companies believe that LED lighting is currently in disorderly competition, they are all entering the market, because when the market is most chaotic, it may be the best opportunity to earn a profit. time. "In fact, LED lighting has a lot of space, such as civilian, outdoor, engineering, high-power street lights, etc. If you replace all the traditional lighting with LED lighting, it will be a big market, so each one I want to share a piece of cake." Liu Sheng said that although the competition is very chaotic, the potential of the LED lighting market is beyond doubt.

Luo Baihui, head of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Industry Suppliers, believes that if there is a bubble in the LED lighting industry, it is also in the downstream industry chain. At present, most enterprises are still relatively low-end LED products, and there are few enterprises that really break through the bottleneck of LED lighting industry development. Wang Dequan, general manager of Fuxing Technology Lighting Co., Ltd. also said that if the LED industry has excess capacity, it can only be said that there is a surplus of single products, not an excess of the industry. At present, China's LED industry is still in its infancy, and there is still huge room for improvement.

It is reported that Fuxing will focus on indoor LED commercial lighting, LED street lights and garden lights this year, while increasing investment in these three areas, thus opening up the gap with other similar enterprises.

"Transformation thinking"

The "chaotic" LED industry is about to enter the profitable golden period?

As an emerging industry, LED can't escape the fate of "a swarm of bees" in China. Under the guidance of national policies, the LED projects in various places swarmed up, and the industry quickly formed a state of chaotic competition and mixed development of "spurt-type", and the relevant national standards have not been introduced, which has intensified the situation of disorderly competition.

An unconfirmed market data indicates that 90% of LED companies have suffered losses, and 80-100 Shenzhen LED companies are facing bankruptcy. Not long ago, Shenzhen Haoduoli Industrial Co., Ltd. caused the chairman to run because of the rapid expansion of the investment chain, and this does not seem to be a case in the industry.

Then, with the implementation of the incandescent lamp elimination policy and the upcoming “12th Five-Year” industry support policies, can the LED industry in the “chaos” enter the profitable golden period smoothly?

According to the reporter's understanding, the domestic LED industry's incentive policy is not completely behind the market. After the first round of LED investment boom in 2008, in September 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting (LED) Energy-Saving Industry", indicating that fiscal and taxation at all levels The reform, science and technology departments and other departments shall promote the implementation of the state's enterprises that produce new types of energy-saving lighting products, and the projects that are encouraged by the state to import and use their own equipment and the technology and accessories and spare parts imported with the equipment in accordance with the contract, exempt from import duties within the prescribed scope. Preferential policy.

However, the technical director of a lighting company in Zhongshan said that although the financial subsidy policy was drafted early, it has not been implemented to specific links, and the company has not enjoyed any subsidy support. For some science and technology support policies at the provincial and municipal levels, a relatively large-scale LED manufacturing company in Guzhen said that they did not know these policies, and no government departments have told them how to apply.

The enterprises that operate LEDs in Guzhen are not optimistic about the fact that “the incandescent lamps can quickly bring a large market space to LEDs after they are eliminated”. Some enterprises said that due to the high price, the application of domestic LED light source is mainly limited to the local government environmental engineering lighting project, but due to the lack of understanding of the LED industry by some local governments, the marketing of LED enterprises is more difficult.

In 2009, the Ministry of Science and Technology launched the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand” semiconductor lighting application demonstration city program, applying 1 million LED municipal lighting fixtures in 20 pilot cities. The goal is to make LED lighting account for 30% of the general lighting market in 2015. %. Guzhen Town, Xiaolan and other Zhongshan towns also came up with support policies and created a number of demonstration roads, giving enterprises the opportunity to participate in and display their products. However, due to the maturity of LED lighting technology is not stable enough, it has not been widely applied in national road engineering.

In the case that government projects have not yet been fully popularized, the civilian use of LED lamps is more difficult to promote. Guzhen has locked the development direction of the LED industry into “application”, but it still faces two major problems of technological breakthrough and market promotion. According to the reporter's understanding, on the one hand, it is a problem that consumers understand and accept. On the one hand, the more important aspect is the high price brought about by technological breakthroughs.

After the elimination of incandescent lamps, the most direct benefit is energy-saving lamps. Energy-saving lamps manufacturers like Op Lighting will benefit greatly. Although the price of energy-saving lamps is still much higher than that of incandescent lamps, compared with LED lamps, energy-saving lamps. The development is more mature and the price is lower.

"The energy-saving lamp also has a 10-year golden development period. This is the conclusion we have drawn through the market survey. LED represents the future direction. Although the current development faces many difficulties in technology, capital, standards, etc., this is not Blocking the development trend of the industry." Secretary General of Zhongshan Lighting Industry Association said.

Edit: Xiang Zuo

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February 07, 2024