LED industry is expected to continue to glow

Civil market picks up "above expectations"

Since the first quarter of this year, the overall market demand for LED has increased dramatically. The volume of orders began to surge, and most manufacturers were in a state of tight production capacity. Some companies even began to seek expansion.

“This year is the best year for the LED market.” Mr. Zhu Bingzhong, deputy general manager of Qinshang Photonics, said at the 18th Guangzhou International Lighting Fair recently concluded that “Our company’s orders have been scheduled until the end of the third quarter. This is also historically Never encountered."

In fact, the surprise is not just the terminal manufacturers, the entire LED industry chain is busy in the industry to pick up.

“The company’s machines are now operating 24 hours a day, and customers have to wait in line for chips.” Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang’s shares in upstream chip makers, revealed. At the same time, packaging companies in the middle reaches of the industry are facing the problems of continuous heating up of downstream demand and the pressure of order queuing, but also the shortage of short-term supply of upstream chip capacity.

Essence Securities believes that the increase in demand is the main driver of this round of industry recovery. What is even more gratifying is that this strong rebound in demand is not the same as the industrial virtual fire that the government “produced” and is more reflected in the civilian market where lighting applications are dominant.

LED Research Institute experts have said that the product's technological upgrading, quality stability and price costs bottomed out, contributed to the rapid rise in civilian demand.

“Through the competition in recent years, LED prices have dropped significantly, and the quality has also improved a lot. Nowadays, many hotels and homes use LED lighting products. The lighting market in the next two or three years will develop rapidly.” Chairman of Hongli Optoelectronics, Li Guoping Told reporters that the current cost of LED light source has dropped to replace the critical point of traditional energy-saving lamps.

Looking to the market, the research institutions are confident in their judgment. "We expect that the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand will reach 59% in the next three years, and LED lighting is expected to drive the industry into a new cycle," a recent brokerage report said.

Policy support for escort industry development

In the face of the huge potential LED industry market, the government's ambition is no less than the enterprise.

At the beginning of this year, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology and other six ministries and commissions released the “Semiconductor Lighting Industry Energy Conservation Plan” clearly stated that it is necessary to promote the LED lighting energy-saving industry to achieve an average annual growth rate of 30% in production value, and the output value in 2015 will reach 450 billion yuan, including LED lighting applications. The product is 180 billion yuan.

The support policies of local governments have been upgraded on the basis of this, and escorted the accelerated development of the LED industry in the region.

Data show that as of March this year, Guangdong Province has already tendered and newly installed nearly 600,000 LED street lamps and more than 1.3 million indoor LED lighting products. The "Notice on Further Intensifying the Work to Ensure the Complete Task of Promoting the Use of LED Lighting Products" issued by the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial Government recently proposed that the target of the promotion and use of LED lighting be unshaken and ensure that the entire province is universally public by the end of 2014. LED lighting task in the field of lighting.

Uniquely, the Fujian provincial government is also targeting this emerging market cake. The Measures for the Promotion and Application of LED Lighting Products in Fujian Province issued in May this year clearly stated that by the end of 2015, it will strive to basically achieve the general use of LED lighting products in the public lighting field, achieving energy saving (electricity) over 50% under the same calibre, and driving The province's LED industry added more than 500 billion yuan in output value.

Industry chain integration is conducive to leading enterprises

While some companies are still immersed in the temporary busyness brought by the market recovery, another part of the company has quietly begun a greater move. Some industry experts said that the integration of the industry chain is surging, and some companies that want to become bigger and stronger are looking for investment and acquisition targets.

Slugger combat has always been a major obstacle to the development of the LED industry. According to statistics, in the current LED industry chain, there are more than 1,000 enterprises above designated size, but no one company has a market share of more than 10%. Of the 19 LED-based businesses that have been listed, only the country’s Optoelectronics and Lianchuang Optoelectronics achieved full industrial chain coverage.

However, this situation will change with the further development of the industry. On the one hand, the formulation of industry standards will squeeze out some "rough" companies. It is reported that at present, the development of the LED industry standard led by the National Standards Committee is in progress. The threshold for standard formation will strongly promote the merger and reorganization of the industry. On the other hand, the industry competition will be further increased. "More than 15,000 lighting companies will be forced to merge and merge because of overcapacity and not getting more orders." The 20 leading companies agreed at the third G20-LED Summit.

In fact, industry mergers and reorganizations have surfaced. Since the second half of 2012, BDO Runda has acquired a series of integrated actions such as NVC Lighting and its participation in Weimei Shengjing, which has completed the integration of LED epitaxial wafers, chips, packages and applications.

Experts in the industry said that before the situation of overcapacity in the upper and middle reaches has been completely improved, only those companies with both upper-middle-stream advantages and downstream channel integration capabilities are likely to survive cruel competition. Although the future market competition will focus on LED terminal lighting applications, it is more important to be able to form the echo and cooperation of the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. The cost-effective products in the upper and middle reaches will be rapidly promoted to LED lighting companies and consumed by the terminal market. Accepted.