Shares in home appliances sector rose overall

In recent days, the stock market has continued to stumble and the industry sector has fallen. However, the home appliance sector has been strong, becoming the only sector that has achieved an overall rise in share prices in December. On Monday, home appliance stocks rose again to top the list, closing as of Monday. , Appliances sector rose 2.97%, including BOE, Oma Electric, owner Electric, Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, Qingdao Haier, Sunrise East, including the vast majority of home appliance stocks have a different range of gains. Market participants pointed out that the deterministic performance and low valuation contributed to the strong trend of the sector, and that the home appliance sector in the next quarter is worth watching.

Brokers believe that the home appliance sector in the next quarter is worth watching. Analysts believe that since December, the wave of home appliance sector has been related to the valuation of the appliance sector at a relatively low level. According to statistics, 2013 was the highest excess return for the home appliance sector in the past three years. As of now, the annual excess return of the Shanghai Composite Index is close to 45%. However, despite the fact that the current valuation of home appliance stocks still generally has a high margin of safety, the price-to-earnings ratio of leading stocks such as Gree Electric Appliances is only 10 times higher.

The Orient Securities report believes that the market funds favor the home appliance sector. In addition to the low valuation of the appliance itself, it is also related to its stable performance. After the performance of the household appliance industry recovered after last year's cold winter, and the current decline in raw material prices, the net profit of home appliance companies was improved. For example, listed companies such as Gree Electric Appliances and Boss Electric Appliances, the net profit in the first three quarters increased by more than 40% year-on-year.

Many brokers are optimistic about the future development of home appliances, that the next quarter, the home appliance sector is worth watching. The report of UBS Securities believes that smart home appliances may become a hot spot in the next year, which may increase the valuation of the home appliance segment. Following the mobile phone, television started the process of intelligentization in 2011, and traditional television companies have since launched smart TV products, which currently account for about half of sales. After television, it is expected that other home appliances such as white electricity will also start the intelligentization process.

According to the report of Haitong Securities, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance, China has entered the peak period of consumer electronics scrapping, and the annual scrapped amount exceeds 50 million sets. The demand brought by product upgrades will also become the future performance guarantee of the home appliance industry. In the future, the growth momentum of the home appliance industry will shift from "quantity" to "quality." White goods will be more specialized in functionality, energy-saving, and Internet of things. In the future, with the 4G Dongfeng, the development space of smart appliances will be even broader.

Minsheng Securities believes that the property market in the 3rd and 4th level accounts for more than 50% of the sales volume in the real estate market in China, while for the traditional household electrical appliances, the proportion in the 3rd and 4th market accounts for less than 50%. If the rhythm of real estate destocking exceeds expectations in 2014, even to the extent of 2011-2012, the transaction volume of the three or four levels of real estate will provide a basis for home appliance consumption after a certain period of time.

The industry cautiously judges that market conditions will be weak next year. However, market research institutions in the home appliance industry are relatively cautious about the overall market trend next year and believe that there will be a year-on-year decline. China Yikang's forecasted data shows that refrigerator sales will decrease 2.0% year-on-year in 2014, sales of washing machines will increase 1.8% year-on-year, and air-conditioner sales volume will grow 3.2% year-on-year.

According to Zhong Yekang's analysis, due to the poor performance of the market and the low base in 2012, the first half of 2013 was driven by the market's growth driven by the energy subsidies policy. In the second half of the year, the market’s negative factors increased, and the white power market showed a high open and low close. Signs. On the whole, the 2013 energy saving subsidy policy overdrawn the market demand in advance, and the white electricity market in 2014 may face weak growth. Coupled with the bank money shortage, the stock market continued to slump, real estate growth slowed down, rising inflation expectations and many other uncertainties increase, consumers' willingness to spend will be reduced, especially the decline in the property market will fundamentally inhibit the consumption of home appliances just needed . Therefore, there are many negative factors facing the white power market in 2014, and the market performance may be biased.

The report of "China's flat-panel TV consumer demand analysis and market forecast" released by the China Consumer Electronics Research Office recently shows that after 10 years of rapid development, domestic flat-panel TV consumer demand has reached a peak, reaching 45 million units. It will be more and more difficult to increase the number of people in the next few years, and it is expected to drop to 44 million units in 2014. This is the first time that domestic flat-panel TVs have seen a negative growth in demand.

Although the overall market was underestimated, the trend of product upgrading and structural adjustment in the home appliance industry was even more pronounced. In the field of white electricity, new standards for energy efficiency of variable frequency air conditioners and washing machines have been implemented since October, and new standards for refrigerators will be introduced in 2014. The increase in policy threshold will promote the upgrading of white goods into the fast track. The forecast data of Zhongyikang show that, in the field of refrigerators, single-door refrigerators and double-door refrigerators will experience a large decline. The sales volume of refrigerators for three-doors, multi-doors, and door-to-door refrigerators will continue to increase. The increase is expected to reach 9.7% and 55.9%, respectively, in washing machines. In the field, single-cylinder, twin-cylinder, and pulsator will all exhibit different degrees of sales decline, and drum washing machines will achieve a high growth rate of 16.4%. In the field of air conditioners, the growth of frequency conversion products will reach 11.1%.

In the field of black electronics, 4K ultra-high-definition, OLED and a new generation of smart TVs are expected to be the main forces driving the overall market upwards for flat-panel TVs in the future. Lu Jiebo, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, said that with the promotion of new flat panel display technology, sales of large-screen and 4K TV products will continue to be high, and OLED and curved TV will also enter the lead-in period. Consumer demand for flat-panel TVs may tend to be multi-functional, such as smart, high-end display, and energy-saving.