In the past 2017, China's new energy auto industry continued to be vigorously promoted according to the national planned route and production and sales targets. According to industry data released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were close to 800,000 in 2017, reaching 79.4 respectively. Ten thousand vehicles and 777,000 vehicles increased by 53.8% and 53.3% respectively year-on-year. In 2017, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 2.7% of the overall automobile market.

Looking back on 2017, the change of the double-point new policy and subsidy policy has been running throughout the year, always swaying the nerves of every industry person. Smart cars and driverless have become the biggest focus of the automobile industry. Various forums have been tirelessly discussing and various types of forums. The media has long and tiringly reported that the new car-making forces are surging, various listing activities, strategic cooperation, and huge amounts of financing are coming, new ideas, new models, and new problems are emerging one after another. It is inevitable that the flood will sway with the wind, and even be temporarily blinded and misunderstood. Going astray, fortunately, the general trend of global industrial transformation has been established, and the pace of progress has begun to accelerate, and the future prospects are expected.

Looking forward to 2018, we analyze and forecast the development prospects of China's new energy automobile industry from the following eight aspects, and hope to provide a perspective and reference for new energy vehicle practitioners and friends who are concerned about new energy vehicles.

1. The production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million in 2018. The new energy automobile industry has begun to take shape, initially forming a relatively complete industrial chain.

Since 2015, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have always been in record highs, which has caused many insiders and outsiders to stun. The main reason is that everyone always has doubts about the Chinese government’s determination to develop new energy vehicles, and even new Analogy analysis between energy vehicles and the photovoltaic industry.

In fact, the general trend of developing new energy vehicles has basically been established, and the wheels of history are beginning to roll forward.

Subsequently, we saw that the policy was frequent, and the annual production and sales targets were continuously broken. Even if there was a “cheat incident”, it did not shake the country’s determination to develop new energy vehicles.

If the production and sales exceeds 1 million vehicles in 2018, it will be a very landmark event in China's new energy automobile industry. It represents that the new energy automobile industry chain can support the scale of millions of orders.

2. The pure electric strategy is beginning to bear fruit, and fuel cells, plug-in and extended programs are expected to receive more attention.

If there is no accident, there will be two major events in the industry in 2018, that is, the two leading enterprises of the new energy automobile industry chain, Ningde Times and Beiqi New Energy, will successively land in A-shares, and the “pure electric” and “support” that the Chinese government has adhered to for many years. The strategy of “Yi Fuqiang” has achieved initial results.

After the industry leader docks the capital market, it will indicate that the industry will begin to enter the knockout stage, and resources will be further concentrated to the dominant enterprises, which will help the outstanding enterprises to become bigger and stronger.

At the same time, the shortcomings of the pure electric technology route have begun to fully emerge. As a technical supplement, the technical advantages of fuel cells, plug-in hybrids and extended programs in certain application fields will receive more policy attention and support.

3. The charging facility will enter the high-speed growth period driven by real and accurate market demand.

The problem of charging facilities “chickens first or eggs first” has been the focus of industry debates over the past few years. As the number of new energy vehicles continues to grow, the problem of insufficient supply of charging infrastructure has become increasingly prominent, and the overall construction scale has been seriously lagging behind.

The data shows that as of the end of 2017, China's various types of charging piles reached 450,000, the pile-to-pile ratio was about 3.8:1, and there was still a big gap from the national plan of 1:1.

Recently, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Miao Wei, publicly pointed out: "The charging infrastructure is still the shortcoming of our development." According to the annual production and sales volume of 2 million vehicles and the quantity of 5 million vehicles in 2020, the demand for charging facilities in the market will be in the order of one million in the next few years. After the preliminary exploration, the effectiveness of the construction of charging facilities will be Greatly increased, the spring of the charging facility industry is coming soon.

4. The prospect of shared cars is promising, but business risks and operational pressures are gradually increasing.

As a new service model that improves vehicle use efficiency and increases personal travel convenience, the future prospects are promising for a long time.

In the past few years, the shared car characterized by time-sharing has basically completed a round of adjustment and elimination. The independent operation group relying on capital and the travel service relying on the whole vehicle enterprise are the two main forces.

With the continuous expansion of the scale of operation and the expansion of the operating area, the operational difficulty and operational pressure of shared vehicles continue to increase, forcing operators to practice content, innovative models, and explore ways.

5. The national standard of low-speed electric vehicles is coming soon, and the market continues to grow wildly.

Low-speed electric vehicles have the ability to replace the same level of fuel vehicles, but lack technical standards and standardized management, and have been suppressed and brutally grown.

With the support of the subsidy policy, the pure electric A0 and A00-level markets have a certain impact on the low-speed car market with low price and license advantage. A large number of low-speed car users have been harvested, and the market sales are the most popular.

The adjustment of the new subsidy policy in 2018 and the mandatory upgrade of the cruising range will greatly increase the cost of vehicles. It is expected that some vehicles that are too dependent on subsidies will withdraw from this market. Low-speed electric vehicles that do not rely on subsidies and do not need to be on the cards are expected to make a comeback. Regaining lost ground, it is expected to usher in a new round of rapid growth in the third- and fourth-tier cities with relatively loose traffic management policies.

6, taxis and electric logistics vehicles are expected to become the next round of urban traffic electrification hotspots

Bus electrification has been going on for many years, and the effective market for new energy buses is close to saturation. Taxi and logistics vehicles are expected to usher in a new round of electrification boom as a field of government procurement and urban traffic control.

Driven by more and more demonstration cities, urban electrification will take the lead in these two areas. Among them, electric logistics vehicles are very large in terms of operation scale and driving ability to the industry.

7. The channel model innovation has entered the peak period, and various explorations have emerged one after another.

New energy vehicles have brought new genes from birth. The exploration of new models has never stopped. Direct sales, distribution, and operation. Various sales promotion models have emerged in an endless stream. It is too early to make judgments and conclusions.

Users in the first- and second-tier markets are more concentrated and generally have experience in car purchase. The model of direct-operating experience stores can greatly enhance the user experience. At the same time, the direct-operated stores are built in areas where users are concentrated, which is more conducive to contacting target customers and products. And the spread of the brand.

The users in the third- and fourth-tier cities are relatively scattered, and many of the first-time car purchases, the traditional 4S shop model may be more easily trusted by users, and it is more economical and effective to serve customers through dealers.

Vehicle and charging facility operators have also explored and practiced the model of selling vehicles by providing vehicles or charging services to potential users. In the initial stage, they mainly focused on purchasing large customers, and the effectiveness of individual car purchases needs to continue. explore.

8, new energy used car circulation, power battery recycling will become a hot spot

Since 2014, new energy vehicles have begun to enter the market in large quantities. In the early days, due to the immature vehicle technology, poor product design, and lack of quality, they have begun to appear idle, and power batteries have begun to decommission in batches. And the processing of the battery will be put on the agenda, otherwise the future will form a huge idle resource, become the "depression lake" of industrial development, 2018 should be a good opportunity to enter this field.

Blender

SHENZHEN CHONDEKUAI TECHNOLOGY CO.LTD , https://www.szsiheyi.com

May 12, 2023